I know that isolation is hard . . .

[swan_tower]

. . . but early data shows encouraging signs that it makes a substantial dent in the spread of the virus.

Not just that, but the Washington Post’s outbreak simulator visually demonstrates that a strong “social distancing” policy is the most effective strategy we’ve got.

So keep it up, y’all. I know it’s difficult, and I know there are knock-on problems for the economy and so forth, and none of us really know yet how all of this will end — at what point we’ll be able to go back to normal life. But right now, it’s doing good. It’s saving lives. It’s buying time for us to test antivirals and develop vaccines and manufacture more needed gear like masks, sanitizer, and medical equipment. It is doing exactly what it’s supposed to: flattening the curve, so that the impact of this gets spread out, and we don’t buckle entirely under the hit.

Stay safe, and keep others safe, too.

Comments

[conuly]

I've been telling people about the pond with the invasive plant that doubles in size every day. In 40 days it covers the entire lake. On what day does it cover half the lake? A surprising number of folks can't work out that the answer is "day 39". Once we've established that and reassured them that the math works out, I then ask "How many days did it take to cover 1% of the lake?"

The answer is 33. It took a month to cover even one percent of the lake, and a week later it was literally everywhere. Somehow this parable works to explain pandemics.