I know that isolation is hard . . .

[swan_tower]

. . . but early data shows encouraging signs that it makes a substantial dent in the spread of the virus.

Not just that, but the Washington Post’s outbreak simulator visually demonstrates that a strong “social distancing” policy is the most effective strategy we’ve got.

So keep it up, y’all. I know it’s difficult, and I know there are knock-on problems for the economy and so forth, and none of us really know yet how all of this will end — at what point we’ll be able to go back to normal life. But right now, it’s doing good. It’s saving lives. It’s buying time for us to test antivirals and develop vaccines and manufacture more needed gear like masks, sanitizer, and medical equipment. It is doing exactly what it’s supposed to: flattening the curve, so that the impact of this gets spread out, and we don’t buckle entirely under the hit.

Stay safe, and keep others safe, too.

Comments

[ckd]

I just wish I'd had the foresight to start isolating before FOGcon, as much as I enjoyed going. I've been coughing since shortly after I got back, and I suspect the travel though it could also have been at-con. :-(

[swan_tower]

I'm in the same boat, yeah. I had been sick before FOGcon, and seem to have had a small relapse afterward. Still haven't quite kicked the cough from that.

[juushika]

I have dyscalculia, which makes comprehending the scope and spread of the pandemic difficult. So visual aids like this are so valuable, and these are so clear and legible and I really appreciate how they contextualize preventative measures. Great links; thank you for sharing them.

[swan_tower]

As I've seen others point out, we're also just really bad as a species at wrapping our brains around this kind of math. We don't do big numbers well, and even if we nod and say that yep, we understand the difference between geometric and exponential increase . . . we really kind of don't. Intellectually, yes, but not on a gut level. It takes images to hammer it home.

[conuly]

I've been telling people about the pond with the invasive plant that doubles in size every day. In 40 days it covers the entire lake. On what day does it cover half the lake? A surprising number of folks can't work out that the answer is "day 39". Once we've established that and reassured them that the math works out, I then ask "How many days did it take to cover 1% of the lake?"

The answer is 33. It took a month to cover even one percent of the lake, and a week later it was literally everywhere. Somehow this parable works to explain pandemics.